GREAT-POWER RIVALRY, MIDDLE-POWER STRATEGIES, AND NON-STATE ACTORS: RESHAPING THE ECONOMIC, ENERGY, AND SECURITY ORDER IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Abstract

The Middle East is experiencing a profound transformation in its regional and international order as intensifying great-power rivalry intersects with the growing strategic autonomy of regional middle powers and the expanding influence of non-state actors. The United States remains the most significant external military power in the region, yet China's economic and diplomatic presence has expanded considerably, while Russia continues to employ military, diplomatic, and energy instruments to preserve its regional influence. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Türkiye, Iran, and Israel have increasingly adopted strategies of diversification, hedging, and selective alignment rather than relying exclusively upon a single external patron. The emergence and consolidation of non-state actors, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq and Syria, further complicate the conventional state-centric understanding of regional order. This article examines how these interacting forces are reshaping the economic, energy, and security architecture of the Middle East. Employing a qualitative and interpretive research design based on peer-reviewed scholarship, academic books, official documents, and reports from international institutions, the study analyzes the interaction between great-power competition, middle-power strategies, and non-state agency. It argues that the emerging Middle Eastern order should not be understood simply as a transition from American hegemony to Chinese dominance. Rather, the region is developing a condition of negotiated multipolarity in which great powers compete for influence, middle powers exploit that competition to expand strategic autonomy, and non-state actors exploit political fragmentation to acquire asymmetric leverage. This transformation is particularly evident in energy markets, infrastructure, maritime trade, investment, defense procurement, and regional diplomacy. The study further demonstrates that economic diversification and the global energy transition have not eliminated the geopolitical importance of the Middle East but have instead expanded the range of strategic resources and vulnerabilities. The article concludes that the future regional order will be determined less by the dominance of a single external power than by the interaction among competing great powers, increasingly autonomous middle powers, and non-state actors operating across interconnected economic, energy, political, and security networks.